Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.009638 0.010889 0.012241 0.013812 0.015589 0.017535 0.019830
2025-11-16 0.007681 0.009412 0.011441 0.013997 0.017133 0.020862 0.025636
2025-11-23 0.006460 0.008368 0.010732 0.013880 0.017968 0.023107 0.030073
2025-11-30 0.005777 0.007832 0.010497 0.014209 0.019260 0.025909 0.035356
2025-12-07 0.004986 0.007030 0.009785 0.013778 0.019432 0.027178 0.038639
2025-12-14 0.004423 0.006458 0.009298 0.013562 0.019822 0.028708 0.042345
2025-12-21 0.003908 0.005891 0.008747 0.013175 0.019890 0.029740 0.045368
2025-12-28 0.003698 0.005743 0.008778 0.013624 0.021205 0.032669 0.051436
2026-01-04 0.003469 0.005538 0.008695 0.013881 0.022227 0.035215 0.057110
2026-01-11 0.003282 0.005379 0.008663 0.014202 0.023361 0.038004 0.063385
2026-01-18 0.003027 0.005085 0.008387 0.014097 0.023784 0.039670 0.067935
2026-01-25 0.002812 0.004836 0.008161 0.014047 0.024281 0.041477 0.072846
2026-02-01 0.002573 0.004529 0.007819 0.013783 0.024406 0.042694 0.076903
2026-02-08 0.002431 0.004379 0.007730 0.013948 0.025293 0.045296 0.083645
2026-02-15 0.002258 0.004157 0.007497 0.013833 0.025660 0.046994 0.088871
2026-02-22 0.002169 0.004079 0.007510 0.014161 0.026857 0.050277 0.097320
2026-03-01 0.001980 0.003799 0.007133 0.013731 0.026593 0.050824 0.100569
2026-03-08 0.001838 0.003596 0.006883 0.013516 0.026716 0.052099 0.105329
2026-03-15 0.001687 0.003364 0.006558 0.013130 0.026467 0.052628 0.108624
2026-03-22 0.001649 0.003350 0.006652 0.013578 0.027916 0.056605 0.119289
2026-03-29 0.001591 0.003291 0.006652 0.013833 0.028989 0.059903 0.128810
2026-04-05 0.001543 0.003249 0.006682 0.014153 0.030219 0.063612 0.139514
2026-04-12 0.001455 0.003117 0.006518 0.014049 0.030539 0.065439 0.146270